The Group’s 2015 paper on the climate change global risk was published in October 2015 in the peer-reviewed journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. It can be freely downloaded at http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/11571/2015/acp-15-11571-2015.html.
The paper may lead to a re-balancing of our understanding of the relative roles of physics and the biosphere in the functioning of the global atmosphere and climate.
About the paper has been written (by one of its official referees):
“I think that their findings are likely to be robust to any reasonable changes of technique and, as such, deserve consideration.
“The significance of these facts … can hardly be overestimated…
“Evidence of a significant relation between temperature and growth in CO2 concentration … immediately throws light on the current “pause”, and also dramatically changes the prospects for the next 50-100 years.”
On the 2006 paper An indicative costed plan…
- “Leggett provides an overview of the biggest risks facing humanity and concludes that we can address most of them at surprisingly low cost. This is a paper definitely worth reading for anyone concerned about our future.”
– John Quiggin, Professor of Economics, University of Queensland 2007
- …is there any way to rank risks rationally? The Australian academic Mark Leggett has attempted to do just this in an upcoming paper for the journal Futures. He methodically considers each risk in turn, from an avian influenza pandemic to a global-warming-sparked oceanic release of methane hydrate. Far from being scary, his conclusion is rather upbeat: mitigation of all the worst risks is not only doable technically but affordable economically – costing … about 2.2 per cent of gross world product per year.
– Mark Lynas, New Statesman, 2006
- “Examples do exist of high-impact, low-frequency events being rigorously analysed for risk, again such as in the nuclear industry and sometimes as yet completely unexperienced risks must be estimated, such as in the bold work of Leggett (2006).”
– M. J.F. Healy et al., (2009) Defense & Security Analysis, 25:2, 119-135
On the Random Road Watch jurisdiction-wide highway safety program:
- “The cost-benefit ratios described by Leggett are so remarkable that one can only wonder why police appear to be so reluctant to embrace the general principles in all other aspects of their work.”
– Ross Homel (1997) Policing for Prevention Criminal Justice Press, New York
- …enforcement programs in Australia and New Zealand demonstrated substantial safety gains by policing with random deployment management of low intensity traffic surveillance. …such (an) approach merits a more detailed examination and perhaps a more (systemwide) application.
– David M. Zaidel, ‘The impact of enforcement on accidents.’ Project funded by the European Commission 2002
- From June (the Cumbria Safety Camera Partnership) will deploy mobile cameras …in frequently changing, randomly chosen places. The aim, it says, is to make motorists unsure of where exactly the cameras are, forcing them to drive more cautiously …
- The experiment brings a welcome dose of sanity to Britain’s strange speed camera laws…
- … the reformers have good evidence. The Cumbrian plan is inspired by Australian states such as Queensland, which has had a random-placement system since 1992. Casualty numbers fell by up to 35% when the new approach was introduced. The World Health Organisation notes approvingly that the “random and overt” nature of the Australian system makes it more effective than a scheme such as Britain’s.
– The Economist. May 31 2007